New House Bill Would Bar Lawmakers — and Their Families — From Betting on Politics

A senior House Republican wants to slam the door on members of Congress profiting from the prediction markets they help regulate. Rep. Bryan Steil of Wisconsin, who chairs the Committee on House Administration, has unveiled legislation that would ban lawmakers, their spouses and their dependent children from placing policy, political and election bets on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.

What Happened

Steil's measure — reported as the 'Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act' — targets the obvious conflict of interest in elected officials wagering on outcomes they can directly influence. Lawmakers caught violating the rule would owe a $2,000 penalty or 10% of the value of the prohibited bets, whichever framework regulators apply. The provision is being folded into a broader pending bill that would also stop members of Congress from buying new shares of individual stocks, except those acquired through dividend reinvestment.

Notably, the proposal is narrower than some critics would like. It prohibits policy and election wagers but does not specifically bar members from using the platforms for sports bets, and it does not extend the restriction to White House officials — a gap that has already drawn pointed commentary. A separate, bipartisan Senate effort from Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand and Dave McCormick is pushing a related crackdown, underscoring how quickly this issue has moved up the agenda.

Why It Matters

Prediction markets have exploded into a multibillion-dollar arena where users can bet real money on legislation, elections and government decisions. That creates a uniquely sharp insider-trading risk: a lawmaker who knows how a vote will land — or can swing it — could quietly cash in. Congress has spent years failing to rein in members' stock trading, but the speed of this prediction-market push suggests lawmakers see the optics here as far harder to defend.

For the crypto and trading world, the bill is a reminder that the regulatory perimeter around prediction markets is hardening fast. Kalshi and Polymarket are already battling lawsuits from states like Kentucky and Michigan over whether their contracts amount to illegal sports betting. Federal rules aimed at insiders would add another layer to an increasingly crowded legal picture.

What's Next

House Speaker Mike Johnson and President Donald Trump have both signaled support for the larger trading-ban package, which leadership has promised will reach the House floor. Whether Steil's prediction-market language survives intact — and whether the carve-outs for sports bets and executive-branch officials hold up under scrutiny — will be the storyline to watch as the bill moves toward a vote.

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