Bitcoin Bull Run Faces Delay as $104.5K Weekly Close Looms Large

Introduction: A Critical Juncture for Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s meteoric rise has hit a speed bump, with its bull run potentially facing delays as the cryptocurrency struggles to maintain key support levels. After peaking above $111,000 in late May 2025, Bitcoin experienced an 8% price drop, raising concerns among traders about the sustainability of its upward momentum. A crucial weekly close at $104,500 is now seen as pivotal for determining whether the bull market continues or enters a deeper correction. This article explores the factors behind this pullback, the technical indicators at play, and the potential path forward for Bitcoin.

Recent Price Action and Market Sentiment

Bitcoin’s price surged to a record high of $111,000 on May 22, 2025, driven by strong institutional demand and optimism surrounding pro-crypto policies in the U.S. However, by May 31, the price had fallen below its previous all-time highs, dipping to around $102,000. This correction, nearing $9,000 from its peak, has sparked debates about whether Bitcoin is entering a consolidation phase or a more significant downturn. Traders like Aksel Kibar and onchain analyst Mags have highlighted the importance of the upcoming weekly candle close, with $104,450—Bitcoin’s December 2024 high—as a critical support level to maintain bullish momentum.

Technical Indicators Signal Caution

Several technical indicators suggest Bitcoin’s bull run may be losing steam. Analyst Aksel Kibar noted that as long as Bitcoin holds above $73,700 on the monthly chart, the bullish outlook remains intact, with a midterm target of $137,000. However, a bearish divergence on weekly charts, as pointed out by onchain analyst Willy Woo, indicates that Bitcoin’s rapid ascent outpaced fundamentals, leading to the current pullback. Mags emphasized that a failure to close above $104,450 could confirm this divergence, potentially leading to weeks of sideways or downward movement. Additionally, Glassnode’s onchain data shows the Short-Term Holder cost-basis, around $100,000, as a key support level that often delineates bull and bear market regimes.

Institutional and Macro Factors at Play

Despite the correction, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong, supported by record inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with $2.75 billion recorded between May 19 and May 25, 2025. Institutional interest, including Strategy’s $427 million Bitcoin purchase and growing acceptance by firms like JPMorgan, continues to bolster long-term optimism. However, macroeconomic headwinds, such as rising bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar, are dampening short-term enthusiasm. Posts on X also highlight technical resistance and profit-taking as contributors to the current slowdown, with some traders eyeing $101,000–$103,000 as a potential buying zone.

Bullish Predictions Amid Short-Term Uncertainty

While some traders warn of a deeper correction, others remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Analysts from Standard Chartered and others project prices ranging from $130,000 to as high as $1.5 million, driven by shrinking supply and growing demand. Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, predicted Bitcoin could reach $500,000 to $1 million, citing its resilience amid hyperinflation concerns. However, these bullish forecasts hinge on Bitcoin reclaiming key levels like $105,000 in the short term, with CryptoQuant identifying $120,000 as a potential profit-taking zone.

Potential Risks and Support Levels

If Bitcoin fails to hold the $104,500 weekly close, analysts warn of a possible deeper pullback, with support zones around $100,000 and $90,500 coming into focus. Trader Roman, analyzing diminishing returns in past cycles, suggested the bull market could be nearing its end, though institutional buying power may delay this outcome. Glassnode’s analysis of three key support trend lines underscores the importance of the Short-Term Holder cost-basis, which has historically acted as a pivot point. A drop below $90,500 could signal a broader correction, potentially testing $70,000, as indicated by weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) trends.

Future Outlook: A Test of Resilience

The coming weeks will be critical for Bitcoin’s bull run. A successful close above $104,500 could pave the way for renewed price discovery, potentially targeting $120,000 or higher. Conversely, a failure to hold this level may lead to a prolonged consolidation or correction, testing investor resolve. The interplay of institutional inflows, macroeconomic conditions, and technical signals will shape Bitcoin’s path. As the market digests this pullback, traders are advised to monitor key levels and onchain metrics closely to gauge the next move.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s bull run is at a crossroads, with the $104,500 weekly close serving as a litmus test for its near-term trajectory. While technical indicators and market sentiment suggest a potential delay in the rally, strong institutional backing and pro-crypto policies provide a solid foundation for optimism. As Bitcoin navigates this volatile phase, investors must weigh the risks of a deeper correction against the potential for new all-time highs, making this a pivotal moment for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.