Bitcoin Climbs Past $113K as Short-Term Holders Ease Up: Rally Fuel or False Hope?

Introduction

Bitcoin’s clawing its way back, pushing past $113,000 after a dip to $112,000, as short-term holders (STHs)—those holding for less than 155 days—dial back their profit-taking, per Glassnode’s latest markets report. The analytics firm notes STH spent volume, a measure of coins sold by recent buyers in profit, dropped to 45%, signaling a market in balance with 70% of STH supply still profitable. But with $300 million in ETF outflows, a record 900 EH/s network hashrate, and $12.4 billion in 2024 crypto scams, the optimism feels shaky. Some traders see a path to $125,000, driven by a potential short squeeze, while others warn of a $109,000 test if support fails. Is this cooling of STH selling a launchpad for new highs, or just a pause in a volatile market? Let’s dive into the data, the dynamics, and what’s next for BTC.

STH Profit-Taking Slows: A Bullish Signal or Market Pause?

Glassnode’s data shows STHs, often traders chasing quick gains, have reduced their selling to 45% of spent volume, below the neutral level, after heavy profit-taking of $11.6 billion in the past 30 days when Bitcoin hit $111,800. This “cooling off” aligns with bull market midlines, with 70% of STH supply still in profit and an even split of profit and loss on moved coins. The STH cost basis, around $93,000, acts as a support floor, rarely breached in bullish cycles. But with a $110,000-$115,000 liquidity gap, per Glassnode, a dip to fill this void isn’t off the table. Is the STH slowdown a sign of renewed confidence, or are traders just holding their breath before the next move?

Institutional and Long-Term Holder Dynamics: Who’s Driving the Price?

While STHs ease up, long-term holders (LTHs) are quietly selling to institutional buyers, with firms like Galaxy Digital reportedly offloading 80,000 BTC amid rising profits, per Cointelegraph. Corporate treasuries, including Cardone Capital and Satsuma Technology’s $217.6 million Bitcoin raise, are absorbing LTH supply, creating a “flywheel buying frenzy,” per analyst Charles Edwards. BlackRock’s spot ETF added 1,230 BTC ($147.4 million) on July 28, holding 739,000 BTC, yet $300 million in ETF outflows signal mixed institutional sentiment, per Cointelegraph. With Bitcoin’s price pinned below $120,000 since July’s $123,000 peak, are institutions fueling a supply shock, or is their caution capping upside?

Technical Outlook: Breakout or Breakdown Looming?

Bitcoin’s price action is rangebound, trading at $113,800 after a low of $112,977, per TradingView. The 200-period moving averages on four-hour charts form resistance, with traders noting a break above $115,850 could trigger a short squeeze, liquidating $9 billion in shorts at $125,000, per Cointelegraph. Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution shows heavy accumulation at $117,000-$122,000, but a $110,000-$115,000 “air gap” suggests a potential drop to $109,000 if support cracks. A bull flag pattern, per TRDR.io, hints at a continuation rally if buy volume returns. With RSI showing fading momentum, is BTC gearing up for a breakout, or setting up for a deeper correction?

Risks and Market Noise: Scams, Tariffs, and Volatility

Bitcoin’s climb faces headwinds. Trump’s tariff threats and a weak July jobs report (73,000 vs. 100,000 expected) have spiked Fed rate cut bets to 80% for September, shaking markets, per Cointelegraph. The $12.4 billion in 2024 scams and $3.01 billion in H1 2025 hacks highlight crypto’s vulnerabilities, per earlier reports. High leverage, with $44.5 billion in open interest, risks liquidations if volatility spikes, per Cointelegraph. The SEC’s softer stance on liquid staking offers regulatory relief, but unaddressed DeFi risks linger. Can Bitcoin shrug off macro noise and scam fears, or will external pressures derail the rally?

Conclusion: A Fragile Climb with Big Potential

Bitcoin’s push above $113,000, fueled by cooling STH profit-taking, signals a market finding balance, with 70% of STH supply in profit and strong institutional buying, per Glassnode. Corporate treasuries and BlackRock’s ETF buys keep the supply shock narrative alive, but $300 million in ETF outflows and a $110,000-$115,000 liquidity gap warn of downside risks, per Cointelegraph. With Bitcoin’s $116,000 resistance looming and a potential $125,000 short squeeze in play, traders should watch $112,000 support closely—a break could mean $109,000, while a push past $115,850 could spark fireworks. Scams and macro volatility demand caution, but BTC’s resilience suggests the bulls aren’t done. Stay sharp, because this climb could soar or stumble.