Bitcoin Eyes $115K in July, but US Jobs Data Looms as Potential Threat

Introduction: Bitcoin’s Bullish Outlook Faces a Test

Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for a potential surge to new all-time highs above $115,000 in early July 2025, driven by sustained institutional buying and favorable market conditions, according to Bitfinex analysts. However, the upcoming U.S. jobs report, expected in early July, could disrupt this uptrend if it signals a stronger-than-expected economy, prompting tighter monetary policy. This article explores Bitcoin’s price trajectory, the impact of macroeconomic factors, and the critical role of the jobs data in shaping market sentiment.

Bitcoin’s Recent Performance and Bullish Signals

As of June 4, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $105,000, down 6% from its record high of $111,970 on May 22, 2025. Despite this correction, analysts remain optimistic. Bitfinex predicts that Bitcoin could reach $115,000 by early July if institutional demand persists and macroeconomic conditions align. The cryptocurrency’s 10% gain in May, fueled by $2.75 billion in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and corporate treasury purchases, underscores strong market momentum. Analysts like Jamie Coutts from Real Vision had earlier forecasted new highs before Q2’s end, a prediction validated by Bitcoin’s May surge. Technical indicators, such as seven consecutive green weekly candles through April, further bolster the bullish case, with some analysts eyeing targets as high as $300,000–$320,000 by year-end based on Elliott Wave patterns and historical fractals.

The Role of US Jobs Data in Bitcoin’s Trajectory

The U.S. jobs report, a key economic indicator, could significantly influence Bitcoin’s price. Bitfinex analysts suggest that weaker-than-expected jobs data would support Bitcoin’s rally by signaling a cooling economy, potentially leading to looser Federal Reserve policies. Conversely, robust jobs numbers could strengthen the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, dampening risk assets like Bitcoin. Recent macroeconomic uncertainty, including stalled U.S.-China trade talks and rising bond yields, has already contributed to Bitcoin’s 10% pullback from its May highs. A strong jobs report could exacerbate this pressure, pushing BTC toward key support levels at $100,000 or $93,200, where significant liquidity exists.

Institutional and Corporate Support Bolsters Optimism

Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong, driven by institutional adoption and tightening supply. Sygnum Bank reports a 30% drop in Bitcoin’s liquid supply over the past 18 months, fueled by ETF inflows and corporate acquisitions. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $36.2 billion, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust holding $70.1 billion in net assets. Corporate treasuries, including Strategy’s 478,740 BTC holdings, have grown 31% to $349 billion in 2025, amplifying demand. Additionally, legislative moves in states like New Hampshire and Texas to permit Bitcoin reserves, alongside international interest from Pakistan and the UK’s Reform party, signal growing governmental acceptance, further supporting price upside.

Technical Challenges and Support Levels

Bitcoin faces technical hurdles, with resistance between $106,000 and $109,000 stifling recent recovery attempts. A bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), noted by analysts like Willy Woo, indicates weakening momentum, with profit-taking intensifying as 96% of Bitcoin’s supply remains in profit. If bulls fail to reclaim $106,000, traders warn of a potential drop to $100,000, a psychological level with strong bid liquidity, or even $93,200. However, onchain data shows whale accumulation around $100,000, suggesting confidence in a rebound. A weekly close above $106,500 could reignite bullish momentum, potentially pushing BTC toward $115,000 or higher.

Macro Risks and Geopolitical Factors

Beyond jobs data, macroeconomic and geopolitical factors pose risks. The escalating U.S.-China trade war, coupled with Trump’s tariff policies, has increased market volatility, contributing to $347 million in Bitcoin ETF outflows on May 29, 2025. High Treasury yields and a potential Japanese bond market crisis, as noted in late May, could further pressure Bitcoin if risk-off sentiment persists. Despite these challenges, Bitcoin’s decoupling from U.S. 10-year Treasury futures, with a 60-day correlation hitting an all-time low, suggests it may be emerging as a distinct asset class, potentially attracting capital from traditional markets.

Long-Term Price Predictions

Analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin’s 2025 trajectory, with Standard Chartered forecasting $200,000 by year-end and $500,000 by 2029, driven by institutional inflows and regulatory clarity. Tom Lee of Fundstrat predicts a long-term target of $3 million, with $250,000 possible by December 2025. Prediction markets on Kalshi see a 43% chance of Bitcoin surpassing $150,000 this year, reflecting strong market optimism. However, Q3 has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest quarter, and analysts caution that a failure to sustain momentum could lead to consolidation or deeper corrections.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s path to $115,000 in July hinges on continued institutional support and favorable macroeconomic conditions, with the U.S. jobs report posing a critical test. While technical resistance and profit-taking present short-term challenges, strong fundamentals, including ETF inflows and corporate adoption, underpin the bullish outlook. Investors should monitor the $106,000 resistance and $100,000 support levels, as well as the jobs data outcome, to gauge whether Bitcoin can resume its uptrend or face a deeper pullback in the coming weeks.