Bitcoin Stumbles at $116K: Jobs Miss Fuels Rate Cut Hopes, But Is the Rally Fading?

Introduction

Bitcoin took a hit on August 1, 2025, rejecting $116,000 at the Wall Street open, even as a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report—73,000 nonfarm payrolls versus 100,000 forecast—spiked Fed rate cut bets to over 75% for September, per Cointelegraph. After dipping to $114,116 amid U.S. trade tariff fears, BTC clawed back to $115,800, but traders are split on what’s next. X posts like @kingfisher_btc highlight buy support below $115,000, while @bravosresearch warns of a macro crash signal. With $1.2 billion in ETF outflows and Fed Governor Kugler’s resignation stirring uncertainty, is Bitcoin poised for a $120,000 breakout, or a deeper pullback? Let’s unpack the jobs data, market dynamics, and BTC’s next move.

Jobs Data Miss: Rate Cut Hopes Soar, But at What Cost?

July’s nonfarm payrolls came in at 73,000, missing the 100,000 estimate and signaling a struggling labor market, per web:0,2,5. This flipped Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish stance from days earlier, with CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showing a >75% chance of a September rate cut, up from <5% for July, per web:0,1,5. Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter flagged “massive” downward revisions for May and June, with 258,000 jobs “disappearing,” hinting at recession or data flaws, per web:0,2. X post @TheKobeissiLetter calls it a red flag, per web:5. Trump piled on, pressuring Powell for cuts, per web:0. Does this boost BTC as a risk asset, or expose cracks in the economic foundation?

Bitcoin’s Price Action: Rejection or Consolidation?

BTC/USD hit $116,000 but sold off at the open, retesting $114,116 lows driven by new U.S. trade tariffs, per web:0,2. By August 1, it stabilized at $115,800, per Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView. A bull flag pattern suggests a $120,000 target if $116,500 holds, but liquidity clusters at $113,600-$114,500 signal a potential dip, per web:0,5. X post @kingfisher_btc notes Bitfinex buyers stepping in below $115,000, while @TedPillows eyes short liquidations at $120,000, per web:0,2,5. Trader CrypNuevo compares this to January’s consolidation, per web:0. Is BTC gearing up for a breakout, or stuck in a range with downside risks?

Macro and Political Noise: Trump, Tariffs, and Fed Drama

Trump’s tariff push and Fed attacks, amplified by Kugler’s August 8 resignation, add volatility, per earlier Cointelegraph reports. The U.S.-EU trade deal, with $750 billion in energy purchases, lifted risk assets, but a 90-day China tariff delay and Fed uncertainty cloud the outlook, per earlier Cointelegraph reports. Strategy’s $2.46 billion BTC buy and $54.9 billion in ETF inflows show corporate strength, per earlier Coinpedia reports, but $1.2 billion in outflows hint at cooling demand, per Cryptopolitan. X post @AlvaApp warns of ETF centralization, per earlier posts. Are macro tailwinds enough, or is political meddling a bearish wildcard?

Market Resilience: Whale Sales and Liquidity Risks

A $9 billion whale sale of 80,000 BTC barely dented prices, per earlier Cointelegraph reports, and Strategy’s 21,021 BTC purchase underscores institutional support, per web:12. But low stablecoin liquidity, per CryptoQuant’s rising SSR, signals weak buying power, needing a reserve spike for $120,000, per earlier Cointelegraph reports. X post @glassnode’s on-chain metrics warn of short-term caution, per earlier Coinpedia reports. With 58.7% longs and short liquidation walls at $120,000, per web:0,5, a squeeze could spark upside, but XRP’s $2.4 billion open interest crash shows altcoin fragility, per earlier Cointelegraph reports. Is BTC’s resilience real, or masking a liquidity crunch?

Conclusion: A Fragile Rally with Big Stakes

Bitcoin’s rejection at $116,000, despite a jobs miss boosting rate cut odds to 75%, highlights a market caught between macro hope and tariff fears, per web:0,2,5. X posts like @kingfisher_btc and @TedPillows see $120,000 potential, but @bravosresearch’s crash signal and $1.2 billion ETF outflows urge caution, per web:5. Kugler’s exit and Trump’s Fed pressure add political noise, while Strategy’s buys show strength, per web:12. With $12.4 billion in 2024 scams and low stablecoin liquidity, per Chainalysis, BTC’s $115,800 hold is no guarantee of a breakout. Traders, watch $113,600 support closely—this could be a springboard to $120,000 or a slide to deeper lows. Stay sharp, because crypto’s never a straight shot.