U.S. Risks Falling Behind in Global Bitcoin Race as Nations Eye Strategic Reserves

Introduction: A Global Bitcoin Arms Race

The United States, despite pioneering the concept of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, is at risk of being outpaced by other nations, according to Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3 and a leading advocate for Bitcoin adoption. With countries like Pakistan announcing plans to accumulate Bitcoin, the race for nation-state adoption is intensifying, potentially reshaping global financial dynamics and impacting Bitcoin’s price trajectory. This article explores the U.S.’s Bitcoin strategy, the emerging global competition, and the implications for BTC’s market value.

U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: A Slow Start

On March 7, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a Digital Asset Stockpile, initially funded by Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies seized in criminal cases. However, the U.S. holds an estimated 112,000 BTC or less, with a significant portion—95,000 BTC—slated for return to the crypto exchange Bitfinex, limiting its reserve capacity. Samson Mow warns that this slow implementation could allow other nations to “front-run” the U.S., undermining its leadership in the global Bitcoin race. He emphasizes the urgency for the U.S. to begin accumulating Bitcoin before the end of Trump’s term, as a new administration could reverse these policies.

Pakistan’s Bold Move into Bitcoin

At the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas on May 28, 2025, Bilal Bin Saqib, CEO of Pakistan’s Crypto Council, announced the country’s plan to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, leveraging 2,000 megawatts of excess energy for Bitcoin mining and high-performance computing data centers. This marks a significant shift from Pakistan’s earlier stance against cryptocurrency legalization, signaling a proactive approach inspired by the U.S. initiative. Mow highlighted Pakistan’s announcement as a direct challenge, noting, “The risk is that the US is front-run by Pakistan, and they were on stage at Las Vegas saying, ‘well, you inspired us to start.’”

Global Competition and China’s Potential Role

The global race for Bitcoin reserves extends beyond Pakistan. Speculation is growing about China’s response, with unconfirmed reports of closed-door meetings on Bitcoin strategy since the 2024 U.S. elections. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju suggested China may have sold its 194,000 BTC stash, but if it retains these holdings, it could surpass the U.S. as the largest national Bitcoin holder. Hong Kong lawmakers are also exploring Bitcoin adoption within China’s “one country, two systems” framework, potentially amplifying regional interest. Other nations, like Bhutan, which holds 11,600 BTC through daily purchases, and El Salvador, a pioneer in Bitcoin adoption, are further intensifying the competition.

Impact on Bitcoin’s Price Dynamics

Mow argues that the rapid adoption by nation-states and corporations has not been fully priced into Bitcoin’s market value, predicting a potential surge to $1 million. The influx of institutional and governmental demand could drive significant price appreciation, especially as Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins. Posts on X reflect similar bullish sentiment, with some traders citing nation-state adoption as a catalyst for Bitcoin reaching $120,000 or higher in 2025. However, short-term volatility persists, with Bitcoin trading at around $105,000 as of June 3, 2025, down from its May 22 peak of $111,900. The $100,000 level remains a critical support, with liquidity clusters suggesting a potential dip before further upside.

Challenges and Risks for the U.S. Strategy

The U.S.’s Bitcoin reserve faces several hurdles:

• Political Uncertainty: Mow warns that the next administration could dismantle Trump’s executive order, necessitating swift action to secure reserves before 2029.

• Limited Holdings: The U.S.’s current 112,000 BTC pales in comparison to potential competitors like China, reducing its strategic leverage.

• Market Impact: Large-scale Bitcoin purchases by governments could increase volatility or drive prices higher, making it harder for retail investors to acquire BTC, as Mow notes. Critics like Nic Carter argue that a Bitcoin reserve could destabilize the U.S. dollar’s global reserve status, while others, including Mow, see it as a hedge against debt and inflation.

Alignment with Bitcoin’s Original Vision

The debate over nation-state Bitcoin reserves raises questions about alignment with Satoshi Nakamoto’s vision of a decentralized, peer-to-peer electronic cash system. Mow argues that government adoption is a natural evolution, akin to gold’s historical role, and does not compromise Bitcoin’s protocol, as no entity can control its network. Trezor’s Lucien Bourdon echoes this, stating that Bitcoin’s integration into national reserves affirms its value as a scarce asset without contradicting its mission. However, concerns about centralization and potential market manipulation persist, with BitMEX’s Arthur Hayes warning that government holdings could be used as a political tool.

Future Outlook: A Race Against Time

The U.S. must act decisively to maintain its edge, with proposals like Senator Cynthia Lummis’ BITCOIN Act of 2024—aiming to acquire 1 million BTC over five years—gaining traction. Mow suggests transitioning gold reserves into Bitcoin to avoid inflationary risks, potentially stabilizing the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, corporate adoption, exemplified by Strategy’s 478,740 BTC holdings and Japan’s Metaplanet raising $135.2 million for Bitcoin purchases, adds further pressure. As nations and corporations compete, Bitcoin’s price could see significant upward movement, though short-term corrections to $100,000 or below remain possible.

Conclusion

The U.S.’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, while groundbreaking, risks being overshadowed by proactive nations like Pakistan and potentially China. Samson Mow’s warnings underscore the urgency for the U.S. to accelerate its Bitcoin accumulation to avoid being “front-run” in this global race. With Bitcoin’s price poised for potential growth driven by nation-state adoption, the coming months will be critical in determining whether the U.S. can leverage its early mover advantage or cede ground to competitors. As the crypto landscape evolves, Bitcoin’s role as a strategic asset is becoming undeniable, reshaping global finance.