XRP Loses Its Last Floor as a Four-Year Oversold Signal Flashes Under $1.05

What Happened

XRP just gave up the last support level standing between it and a fall back toward the psychological dollar mark. The token slipped under roughly $1.04 on Thursday, breaking a floor that bulls had been defending for weeks, while its weekly Relative Strength Index sank to its most oversold reading in four years. For a coin that spent much of the cycle as one of the loudest comeback stories in crypto, the chart now looks less like a base and more like a trapdoor.

The breakdown did not happen in a vacuum. Bitcoin is grinding through the eighth month of a bear market and recently slipped under $60,000 to a 20-month low, dragging the rest of the majors down with it. XRP, which tends to trade with a high beta to broad risk sentiment, has been one of the worst performers as that bleed has dragged on, and the loss of the $1.04 shelf removes the most obvious technical line in the sand.

Why It Matters

A weekly RSI at a four-year low is the kind of reading that cuts both ways. On one hand, it confirms just how exhausted and one-sided the selling has become. On the other, deeply oversold conditions on a high-timeframe oscillator have historically marked points where sellers run out of ammunition rather than the start of fresh collapses. Analysts tracking XRP's history note the weekly RSI has only printed readings this stretched a handful of times in the asset's life, and each prior instance eventually preceded a relief move.

The on-chain picture is just as split. Santiment data shows the largest wallets trimmed positions through mid-June, with aggregate whale holdings sliding from around 3.82 billion XRP to roughly 3.77 billion. Yet the number of wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP has climbed to a record near 332,000 addresses, a sign that smaller-but-still-sizable holders are accumulating into the weakness even as the biggest players lighten up. One trader went a step further, opening a 20x leveraged long on more than 27 million XRP — a bet that only pays off if this flush marks a bottom rather than a waypoint.

What's Next

With $1.04 gone, the next zone traders are watching sits in the $0.90 to $1.00 region — the same band that absorbed selling earlier in the cycle. Reclaiming $1.04 quickly would turn this into a classic bear-trap wick; failing to do so opens the door to a deeper retest where the dollar level becomes the line that actually matters. Either way, XRP's fate is still chained to Bitcoin: until BTC stops making lower lows, oversold signals on altcoins are a reason to watch, not a reason to chase.

For now the message from the tape is simple. The selling is extreme, the whales are conflicted, and the dip-buyers are stepping in early. Whether they are catching a bottom or a falling knife is the only question that matters into the close of the week.

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